Global summary

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively (see Methods for further explanation).

Using data available up to the: 2020-04-17

Note that it takes time for infection to cause symptoms, to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, for a positive test to return and ultimately to enter the case data presented here. In other words, today’s case data are only informative of new infections about two weeks ago. This is reflected in the plots below, which are by date of infection.

Expected daily confirmed cases by country


Figure 1: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on estimated confirmed cases with a date of infection on the 2020-04-07) can be summarised by whether confirmed cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively (see the methods for details). Countries with fewer than 100 confirmed cases reported on a single day are not included in the analysis (light grey) as there is not enough data to reliably estimate the reproduction number.

Summary of latest reproduction number and confirmed case count estimates by date of infection


Figure 1: Confirmed cases with date of infection on the 2020-04-07 and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light bar = 90% credible interval; dark bar = the 50% credible interval.). Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily confirmed cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily confirmed cases. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required for elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 2: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-07. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.

Reported confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 3: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-07. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions


Figure 4: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-07. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.

Reported confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in all regions

Figure 5: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-07. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence.

Latest estimates (as of the 2020-04-07)

Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-04-07) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time in each region. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown.
Country/Region New confirmed cases by infection date Expected change in daily cases Effective reproduction no. Doubling time (days)
Algeria 94 (49 – 140) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.3) 95 (8.5 – Inf)
Argentina 114 (64 – 154) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.4) 39 (8.4 – Inf)
Australia 58 (24 – 98) Decreasing 0.7 (0.5 – 0.8) -11 (20 – Inf)
Austria 159 (99 – 212) Decreasing 0.7 (0.6 – 0.9) -9.5 (Inf – Inf)
Azerbaijan 64 (27 – 96) Unsure 0.9 (0.6 – 1.2) -20 (12 – Inf)
Bahrain 168 (107 – 220) Increasing 1.6 (1.2 – 1.9) 7.1 (4.4 – 17)
Bangladesh 192 (132 – 241) Increasing 1.6 (1.2 – 1.9) 7.4 (4.7 – 17)
Belarus 377 (304 – 446) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 23 (11 – Inf)
Belgium 1397 (1261 – 1538) Unsure 1 (1 – 1.1) 1100 (40 – Inf)
Brazil 1967 (1793 – 2126) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 34 (19 – 160)
Cameroon 26 (3 – 47) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.3 – 1.2) -10 (7.8 – Inf)
Canada 1288 (1147 – 1414) Unsure 1 (1 – 1) -180 (52 – Inf)
Chile 352 (274 – 415) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.1) -53 (35 – Inf)
China 89 (42 – 134) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.4) 59 (7.5 – Inf)
Colombia 119 (68 – 164) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.6 – 1) -13 (130 – Inf)
Czechia 114 (64 – 153) Decreasing 0.7 (0.5 – 0.9) -8.9 (Inf – Inf)
Denmark 181 (121 – 238) Decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 1) -13 (Inf – Inf)
Dominican Republic 216 (157 – 263) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 31 (11 – Inf)
Ecuador 150 (99 – 193) Decreasing 0.6 (0.4 – 0.9) -4.7 (Inf – Inf)
Egypt 153 (93 – 203) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.3) -560 (13 – Inf)
Estonia 43 (9 – 73) Unsure 1 (0.6 – 1.5) 83 (5.1 – Inf)
Finland 101 (51 – 147) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1) -14 (35 – Inf)
France 3291 (3070 – 3495) Decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -49 (Inf – Inf)
Germany 2530 (2355 – 2718) Decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 0.8) -12 (Inf – Inf)
Ghana 80 (24 – 131) Likely increasing 1.5 (0.9 – 2.1) 8.7 (3.7 – Inf)
Greece 47 (8 – 79) Unsure 0.9 (0.5 – 1.2) -18 (8.1 – Inf)
Hungary 76 (36 – 115) Unsure 0.9 (0.6 – 1.2) -17 (17 – Inf)
India 1017 (907 – 1129) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 19 (12 – 43)
Indonesia 319 (254 – 386) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 33 (12 – Inf)
Iran 1593 (1442 – 1746) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 0.9) -27 (Inf – Inf)
Iraq 41 (8 – 71) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.4 – 1.1) -9.3 (12 – Inf)
Ireland 925 (796 – 1030) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 19 (12 – 47)
Israel 444 (362 – 522) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 50 (16 – Inf)
Italy 3188 (2979 – 3404) Decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 0.9) -33 (Inf – Inf)
Japan 506 (421 – 580) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 49 (14 – Inf)
Kazakhstan 128 (71 – 187) Increasing 1.4 (1.1 – 1.8) 9.4 (4.7 – Inf)
Kuwait 82 (33 – 124) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.3) -40 (11 – Inf)
Lithuania 25 (0 – 48) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.2 – 1.2) -8.3 (7.1 – Inf)
Luxembourg 37 (10 – 60) Decreasing 0.6 (0.4 – 0.9) -7 (84 – Inf)
Malaysia 155 (90 – 213) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.2) 150 (11 – Inf)
Mexico 407 (334 – 476) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 39 (14 – Inf)
Moldova 140 (81 – 193) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.4) 38 (8.8 – Inf)
Morocco 129 (77 – 176) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.4) 21 (7.2 – Inf)
Netherlands 924 (810 – 1037) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1) -40 (140 – Inf)
Norway 98 (48 – 139) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.6 – 1.1) -24 (16 – Inf)
Oman 122 (68 – 173) Increasing 1.7 (1.2 – 2.1) 6.3 (3.7 – 19)
Pakistan 369 (297 – 445) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 41 (13 – Inf)
Panama 140 (87 – 184) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1) -16 (65 – Inf)
Peru 1252 (1118 – 1381) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.5) 13 (9.8 – 21)
Philippines 270 (209 – 338) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 16 (8.1 – 1600)
Poland 315 (248 – 383) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1.1) -35 (46 – Inf)
Portugal 531 (442 – 614) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -16 (Inf – Inf)
Puerto Rico 53 (16 – 82) Unsure 1 (0.6 – 1.4) -120 (7.3 – Inf)
Qatar 249 (185 – 312) Likely increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 27 (10 – Inf)
Romania 321 (251 – 390) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -85 (25 – Inf)
Russia 2758 (2580 – 2979) Increasing 1.4 (1.3 – 1.5) 10 (8.4 – 12)
Saudi Arabia 459 (378 – 546) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.4) 14 (8.5 – 36)
Serbia 406 (334 – 484) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.5) 12 (7.5 – 33)
Singapore 368 (297 – 443) Increasing 1.5 (1.3 – 1.7) 8.8 (6 – 16)
Slovakia 51 (15 – 82) Unsure 1.2 (0.7 – 1.7) 66 (5.2 – Inf)
South Africa 128 (77 – 181) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.9 – 1.7) 13 (5.7 – Inf)
South Korea 43 (11 – 76) Unsure 1 (0.5 – 1.4) 150 (5 – Inf)
Spain 4008 (3778 – 4251) Decreasing 0.8 (0.8 – 0.9) -22 (Inf – Inf)
Sweden 460 (371 – 538) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -32 (86 – Inf)
Switzerland 398 (325 – 476) Decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 0.8) -13 (Inf – Inf)
Thailand 45 (11 – 75) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.4 – 1.1) -14 (9.4 – Inf)
Turkey 4307 (4071 – 4562) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 120 (41 – Inf)
Ukraine 435 (350 – 507) Increasing 1.4 (1.2 – 1.6) 9.4 (6.6 – 17)
United Arab Emirates 409 (337 – 490) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.3) 29 (12 – Inf)
United Kingdom 5039 (4759 – 5273) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 450 (52 – Inf)
United States of America 27617 (27038 – 28263) Decreasing 1 (0.9 – 1) -45 (Inf – Inf)
Uzbekistan 145 (88 – 198) Increasing 1.4 (1.1 – 1.8) 9.7 (5.1 – 82)

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